Do you yearn for a tool that can forecast how well your policy (bill, law, regulation, or proposal of any nature) will work? Surely you’ve had meetings and conferences and task forces and burned the midnight oil, but you’re still flying by the seat of your pants, wondering, hoping that your effort will come to fruition favorably.
What if I showed you a new tool that could give you a numerical index of the probability that the proposal will succeed? "Impossible," you would say, but believe me, in the proper hands, that tool is here. It’s called Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA), the creation of Dr. Steven E. Wallis, and here’s what we can do with it.
Through examining the logic structure of a proposal,*
1. we can assign a numerical value to the probability that it will be successful - or not;
2. if applied during development of a proposal (policy, bill, law, or regulation), we can identify detrimental casual elements at that stage, permitting the developers to step back, modify, and improve the outcome;
3. when there are several policy alternatives, they can be compared and the preferable one selected for completion. From the standpoint of promoting collaboration between differing parties, IPA can open the possibility of synergy-based success, mitigating partisan and ideological gridlock; and
4. by creating a framework for tracking relevant data, it allows rigorous evaluation of the policy or law once in effect. In the event that a policy/proposal fails to achieve its intended goals (and results in undesirable, unintended consequences), IPA can identify causal components that with modification can elicit a more beneficial outcome.
By focusing on the logic of formal documents, we expect to avoid much of the confusion that partisan arguments have generated. Our purpose is to provide clear, non-partisan information to help organizations make more informed decisions.
Having conceived of and developed IPA to the point of practical application to policy and other disciplines through the efforts of Dr. Wallis, we wish to improve its capabilities and teach others its use.**Our long-range objective is to foster the adoption of this singular tool to improve the quality of policy decisions and outcomes and other matters that face those responsible in governments, in the commercial sectors, and even in science and engineering as it is used in the social services sphere and in the "soft sciences."
For further information: Franklin David Nash, MD, Principal Center for Scientific Analysis of Policy, LLC (d/b/a SciPolicy) 7500 Hoover Road Indianapolis, IN 46260 844.870.7870 || 412.999.2550 firstname.lastname@example.org
* For those interested in the application of logic models to the creation and evaluation of policy and other issues, we recommend reading Wallis, S. (2010). “Toward the Development of More Effective Policy Models.” Integral Review, special issue “Toward Development of Politics and the Political.” Vol. 6 (1), p 153-177. The link above will take you from this site; we hope you will return. **Dr. Wallis, a F,ulbright Specialist Award recipient, taught policy analysis and improvement in Halle, Germany, in the summer of 2015, focusing on IPA, and in Italy in 2016; the IACCM chose him to be keynote speaker at the IACCM2015 conference in Vienna in October 2015.